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自动化与信息科学期刊
SJR: 0.275 SNIP: 0.59 CiteScore™: 0.8

ISSN 打印: 1064-2315
ISSN 在线: 2163-9337

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自动化与信息科学期刊

DOI: 10.1615/JAutomatInfScien.v41.i12.40
pages 58-69

Identification of Models of Geomagnetic Activity and Space Weather Prediction

Vitaliy A. Yatsenko
Institute of Space Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and National Space Agency of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
Oleg K. Cheremnykh
Institute of Space Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and State Space Agency of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine
Vsevolod M. Kuntsevich
Institute of Space Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and State Space Agency of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine
Oleg V. Semeniv
Institute of Space Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and National Space Agency of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine

ABSTRACT

The problem of prediction of geomagnetic activity by the example of the method of Dst-index is considered. For its solving we suggested to use a nonlinear discrete dynamical system, which is obtained by decomposition of perturbations into series relative to correlation functions. Identification of structure and model parameters is defined by solving the corresponding problems of mathematical programming on bounded, but large enough set of stable models. On identification of model structure we took into account the assumption that model describes the state of magnetic-spherical-plasma medium, which is to great extent caused by influence of velocities of solar wind and south magnetic component of interplanetary magnetic field. The principal result of the work consists in numerical substantiation of existence of common stable model of minimal complexity, which provides the best prediction.


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