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Journal of Automation and Information Sciences
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ISSN Druckformat: 1064-2315
ISSN Online: 2163-9337

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Journal of Automation and Information Sciences

DOI: 10.1615/JAutomatInfScien.v50.i5.30
pages 22-33

Comparative Modeling of Two Special Scenarios of Extreme Dynamics in Forest Ecosystems: Psillides in Australia and Spruce Budworm Moth in Canada

Andrey Yu. Perevaryukha
Saint Petersburg Institute for Informatics and Automation of Russian Academy of Sciences, Saint Petersburg (Russia)


Critical states of quantity remain outside the framework of classical methods of mathematical modeling in ecology. Outbreaks disrupt the idea of a species balance with the environment, the hypothesis of competition between individuals of one population and a decrease in reproduction efficiency with increasing density. In modern conditions, the extreme dynamics of populations take place more often due to the penetration of alien species into ecosystems and expansion of its areal. Explosive reproductions cause serious damage to the forest industry and can even irreversibly transform the environment. By the method of comparative analysis of situations, it is considered two scenarios of rapid, but spontaneously damped outbreaks of forest pests. For the dynamics of psyllides in the forests of Australia, a hybrid model with transition to chaotic fluctuations is proposed. Spruce budworm moth Choristoneura fumiferana in Canada is characterized by a series of damped peaks. The proposed model in the form of equations with delay describes the scenario of damped sharp oscillations, which has a more general character. A similar dynamics can be traced for invasive ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in the Caspian Sea and even in the dynamics of the epidemic of the "Spanish flu" a century ago, according to mortality in the UK. The scenarios considered in new computing models are transitional processes in the interaction of the species with its biotic environment.

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