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Journal of Automation and Information Sciences
SJR: 0.238 SNIP: 0.464 CiteScore™: 0.27

ISSN Druckformat: 1064-2315
ISSN Online: 2163-9337

Volumes:
Volumen 51, 2019 Volumen 50, 2018 Volumen 49, 2017 Volumen 48, 2016 Volumen 47, 2015 Volumen 46, 2014 Volumen 45, 2013 Volumen 44, 2012 Volumen 43, 2011 Volumen 42, 2010 Volumen 41, 2009 Volumen 40, 2008 Volumen 39, 2007 Volumen 38, 2006 Volumen 37, 2005 Volumen 36, 2004 Volumen 35, 2003 Volumen 34, 2002 Volumen 33, 2001 Volumen 32, 2000 Volumen 31, 1999 Volumen 30, 1998 Volumen 29, 1997 Volumen 28, 1996

Journal of Automation and Information Sciences

DOI: 10.1615/JAutomatInfScien.v43.i3.70
pages 67-82

Minimax Approach to Magnetic Storms Forecasting (Dst-index Forecasting)

Igor A. Kremenetskiy
Institute of Space Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and National Space Agency of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine
Nikolay N. Salnikov
Institute of Space Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and National Space Agensy of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

ABSTRAKT

The solution of the problem of forecasting the main parameter of magnetic storms, the Dst-index, using autoregressive models and measurements of the solar wind parameters, is considered. On the basis of the brief analysis of the physical processes during magnetic storm, the main dynamic characteristics of the Dst-index are given. The possibility in principle of forecasting the Dst-index over the time longer than the transport delay of spread of the solar wind disturbance from the measurement point to the head of the magnetosphere is investigated in detail. The minimax approach to identification of the parameters of forecast models is proposed and justified. The use of this technique on the basis of real measurement data is illustrated.


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