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International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification

Published 6 issues per year

ISSN Print: 2152-5080

ISSN Online: 2152-5099

The Impact Factor measures the average number of citations received in a particular year by papers published in the journal during the two preceding years. 2017 Journal Citation Reports (Clarivate Analytics, 2018) IF: 1.7 To calculate the five year Impact Factor, citations are counted in 2017 to the previous five years and divided by the source items published in the previous five years. 2017 Journal Citation Reports (Clarivate Analytics, 2018) 5-Year IF: 1.9 The Immediacy Index is the average number of times an article is cited in the year it is published. The journal Immediacy Index indicates how quickly articles in a journal are cited. Immediacy Index: 0.5 The Eigenfactor score, developed by Jevin West and Carl Bergstrom at the University of Washington, is a rating of the total importance of a scientific journal. Journals are rated according to the number of incoming citations, with citations from highly ranked journals weighted to make a larger contribution to the eigenfactor than those from poorly ranked journals. Eigenfactor: 0.0007 The Journal Citation Indicator (JCI) is a single measurement of the field-normalized citation impact of journals in the Web of Science Core Collection across disciplines. The key words here are that the metric is normalized and cross-disciplinary. JCI: 0.5 SJR: 0.584 SNIP: 0.676 CiteScore™:: 3 H-Index: 25

Indexed in

PROBABILISTIC QUANTIFICATION OF HAZARDS: A METHODOLOGY USING SMALL ENSEMBLES OF PHYSICS-BASED SIMULATIONS AND STATISTICAL SURROGATES

Volume 5, Issue 4, 2015, pp. 297-325
DOI: 10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2015011451
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ABSTRACT

This paper presents a novel approach to assessing the hazard threat to a locale due to a large volcanic avalanche. The methodology combines: (i) mathematical modeling of volcanic mass flows; (ii) field data of avalanche frequency, volume, and runout; (iii) large-scale numerical simulations of flow events; (iv) use of statistical methods to minimize computational costs, and to capture unlikely events; (v) calculation of the probability of a catastrophic flow event over the next T years at a location of interest; and (vi) innovative computational methodology to implement these methods. This unified presentation collects elements that have been separately developed, and incorporates new contributions to the process. The field data and numerical simulations used here are subject to uncertainty from many sources, uncertainties that must be properly accounted for in assessing the hazard. The methodology presented here will be demonstrated with data from the Soufriere Hills Volcano on the island of Montserrat, where there is a relatively complete record of volcanic mass flows from the past 15 years. This methodology can be transferred to other volcanic sites with similar characteristics and where sparse historical data have prevented such high-quality analysis. More generally, the core of this methodology is widely applicable and can be used for other hazard scenarios, such as floods or ash plumes.

CITED BY
  1. Brunet Morgane, Moretti Laurent, Le Friant Anne, Mangeney Anne, Fernández Nieto Enrique Domingo, Bouchut Francois, Numerical simulation of the 30–45 ka debris avalanche flow of Montagne Pelée volcano, Martinique: from volcano flank collapse to submarine emplacement, Natural Hazards, 87, 2, 2017. Crossref

  2. Bevilacqua Andrea, Neri Augusto, Bisson Marina, Esposti Ongaro Tomaso, Flandoli Franco, Isaia Roberto, Rosi Mauro, Vitale Stefano, The Effects of Vent Location, Event Scale, and Time Forecasts on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Maps at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy), Frontiers in Earth Science, 5, 2017. Crossref

  3. Wolpert Robert L., Spiller Elaine T., Calder Eliza S., Dynamic Statistical Models for Pyroclastic Density Current Generation at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Frontiers in Earth Science, 6, 2018. Crossref

  4. Woo Gordon, Stochastic Modeling of Past Volcanic Crises, Frontiers in Earth Science, 6, 2018. Crossref

  5. Tierz P., Stefanescu E. R., Sandri L., Sulpizio R., Valentine G. A., Marzocchi W., Patra A. K., Towards Quantitative Volcanic Risk of Pyroclastic Density Currents: Probabilistic Hazard Curves and Maps Around Somma-Vesuvius (Italy), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2018. Crossref

  6. Bevilacqua Andrea, Bursik Marcus, Patra Abani, Bruce Pitman E., Yang Qingyuan, Sangani Radhika, Kobs‐Nawotniak Shannon, Late Quaternary Eruption Record and Probability of Future Volcanic Eruptions in the Long Valley Volcanic Region (CA, USA), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 123, 7, 2018. Crossref

  7. Bevilacqua Andrea, Patra Abani K., Bursik Marcus I., Pitman E. Bruce, Macías José Luis, Saucedo Ricardo, Hyman David, Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4, 2019. Crossref

  8. Rutarindwa Regis, Spiller Elaine T., Bevilacqua Andrea, Bursik Marcus I., Patra Abani K., Dynamic Probabilistic Hazard Mapping in the Long Valley Volcanic Region CA: Integrating Vent Opening Maps and Statistical Surrogates of Physical Models of Pyroclastic Density Currents, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 124, 9, 2019. Crossref

  9. Hyman David M., Bevilacqua Andrea, Bursik Marcus I., Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 19, 7, 2019. Crossref

  10. Clarke Ben, Tierz Pablo, Calder Eliza, Yirgu Gezahegn, Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment for Pyroclastic Density Currents From Pumice Cone Eruptions at Aluto Volcano, Ethiopia, Frontiers in Earth Science, 8, 2020. Crossref

  11. Patra Abani, Bevilacqua Andrea, Akhavan-Safaei Ali, Pitman E. Bruce, Bursik Marcus, Hyman David, Comparative Analysis of the Structures and Outcomes of Geophysical Flow Models and Modeling Assumptions Using Uncertainty Quantification, Frontiers in Earth Science, 8, 2020. Crossref

  12. Procter Jonathan, Zernack Anke, Mead Stuart, Morgan Michael, Cronin Shane, A review of lahars; past deposits, historic events and present-day simulations from Mt. Ruapehu and Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand, New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 64, 2-3, 2021. Crossref

  13. Yang Qingyuan, Pitman E. Bruce, Spiller Elaine, Bursik Marcus, Bevilacqua Andrea, Novel statistical emulator construction for volcanic ash transport model Ash3d with physically motivated measures, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 476, 2242, 2020. Crossref

  14. Spiller Elaine T., Wolpert Robert L., Ogburn Sarah E., Calder Eliza S., Berger James O., Patra Abani K., Pitman E. Bruce, Volcanic Hazard Assessment for an Eruption Hiatus, or Post-eruption Unrest Context: Modeling Continued Dome Collapse Hazards for Soufrière Hills Volcano, Frontiers in Earth Science, 8, 2020. Crossref

  15. Berger James O., Smith Leonard A., On the Statistical Formalism of Uncertainty Quantification, Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 6, 1, 2019. Crossref

  16. Bevilacqua Andrea, Aravena Alvaro, Neri Augusto, Gutiérrez Eduardo, Escobar Demetrio, Schliz Melida, Aiuppa Alessandro, Cioni Raffaello, Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua), Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21, 5, 2021. Crossref

  17. Tierz Pablo, Bevilacqua Andrea, Mead Stuart, Spiller Elaine, Sandri Laura, Editorial: Field Data, Models and Uncertainty in Hazard Assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents and Lahars: Global Perspectives, Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 2021. Crossref

  18. Gu Mengyang, Berger James O., Parallel partial Gaussian process emulation for computer models with massive output, The Annals of Applied Statistics, 10, 3, 2016. Crossref

  19. Zhao Hu, Amann Florian, Kowalski Julia, Emulator-based global sensitivity analysis for flow-like landslide run-out models, Landslides, 18, 10, 2021. Crossref

  20. Bevilacqua Andrea, Bertagnini Antonella, Pompilio Massimo, Landi Patrizia, Del Carlo Paola, Di Roberto Alessio, Aspinall Willy, Neri Augusto, Major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy): a new historical catalog and temporal models of occurrence with uncertainty quantification, Scientific Reports, 10, 1, 2020. Crossref

  21. Aravena A., Bevilacqua A., de’ Michieli Vitturi M., Esposti Ongaro T., Neri A., Cioni R., Calibration strategies of PDC kinetic energy models and their application to the construction of hazard maps, Bulletin of Volcanology, 84, 3, 2022. Crossref

  22. Jones-Ivey Renette, Patra Abani, Bursik Marcus, Workflows for Construction of Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Maps for Volcanic Hazard Assessment, Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 2022. Crossref

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