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International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification
IF: 0.967 5-Year IF: 1.301 SJR: 0.531 SNIP: 0.8 CiteScore™: 1.52

ISSN Print: 2152-5080
ISSN Online: 2152-5099

Open Access

International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification

DOI: 10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2019029282
Forthcoming Article

Using Parallel Markov Chain Monte Carlo to Quantify Uncertainties in Geothermal Reservoir Calibration

Tiangang Cui
Monash University
Colin Fox
University of Otago
Geoff Nicholls
University of Oxford
Mike O'Sullivan
The University of Auckland

ABSTRACT

We introduce a parallel rejection scheme to give a simple but reliable way to parallelise the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. This method can be particularly useful when the target density is computationally expensive to evaluate and the acceptance rate of the Metropolis-Hastings is low. We apply the resulting method to quantify uncertainties of inverse problems, in which we aim to calibrate a challenging nonlinear geothermal reservoir model using real measurements from well tests. We demonstrate the parallelised method on various well-test scenarios. In some scenarios, the sample-based statistics obtained by our scheme shows clear advantages in providing robust model calibration and prediction compare with those obtained by nonlinear optimisation methods.