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Journal of Automation and Information Sciences
SJR: 0.238 SNIP: 0.464 CiteScore™: 0.27

ISSN 印刷: 1064-2315
ISSN オンライン: 2163-9337

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Journal of Automation and Information Sciences

DOI: 10.1615/JAutomatInfScien.v43.i3.70
pages 67-82

Minimax Approach to Magnetic Storms Forecasting (Dst-index Forecasting)

Igor A. Kremenetskiy
Institute of Space Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and National Space Agency of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine
Nikolay N. Salnikov
Institute of Space Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and National Space Agensy of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

要約

The solution of the problem of forecasting the main parameter of magnetic storms, the Dst-index, using autoregressive models and measurements of the solar wind parameters, is considered. On the basis of the brief analysis of the physical processes during magnetic storm, the main dynamic characteristics of the Dst-index are given. The possibility in principle of forecasting the Dst-index over the time longer than the transport delay of spread of the solar wind disturbance from the measurement point to the head of the magnetosphere is investigated in detail. The minimax approach to identification of the parameters of forecast models is proposed and justified. The use of this technique on the basis of real measurement data is illustrated.


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