要約

The method for the expert judgements of paired comparisons in the problem of calculation of the decision alternatives weights is proposed. This uncertainty is caused by the Saaty's evaluation scale and such expert features as pessimism/optimism. It is shown that the total consistency of expert judgements of paired comparisons can not be an indication of their truth. Therefore, the proposed method is based on the statement that expert judgements of paired comparisons only partially reflect the real ratios of the alternative weights and contain uncertainty regardless of their consistency level. Using the theory of trust (evidence) technique and results of a computer modeling, the general uncertainty index of paired comparisons expert judgementss is defined, when the uncertainty being caused by the Saaty's evaluation scale and personal expert features. This index is subsequently used to calculate the confidence intervals for the relative weights of decisions alternatives, which reflect alternatives importance more reliably in comparison with the point weights.