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ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY PRODUCTION AFTER THE YEAR 2000

DOI: 10.1615/ICHMT.1988.20thAHT.160
pages 217-232

R. Gibrat
Conseiller Scientifique SOLMER, Paris, France

要約

Gasoline crisis, energy crisis, civilization crisis, for several months we have been hearing all sorts of exclamations, lamentations, anguished questions, and apprehensive answers. Commissions on departmental and interdepartmental levels are succeeding one another and publishing bulky reports. Every day the press is full of opinions and contradictory judgments. The government steps in, explains, and makes laws.
We will avoid any commotion of this sort because we do not seek to define the future in a precise way by means of our long-term reflections. We will limit ourselves to examining the great lines of our present knowledge and if we quote as examples some figures to characterize the situation in the year 2000, our conclusions will nonetheless remain valid for energy situations that differ a great deal from each other in this period.
There is no contradiction with the difficulties that the futurologists foresee for the year 2000. Our viewpoint is different and takes into consideration the great inertia of decisions and the exceptionally long duration of scientific and technical research when energy is at stake.

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