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Journal of Automation and Information Sciences
SJR: 0.238 SNIP: 0.464 CiteScore™: 0.27

ISSN Imprimir: 1064-2315
ISSN On-line: 2163-9337

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Journal of Automation and Information Sciences

DOI: 10.1615/JAutomatInfScien.v47.i10.70
pages 69-82

Method for Evaluation of the Uncertainty of the Paired Comparisons Expert Judgements when Calculating the Decision Alternatives Weights

Nadezhda I. Nedashkovskaya
Institute of Applied Systems Analysis of National Technical University of Ukraine "Kiev Polytechnical Institute" of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, Ukraine

RESUMO

The method for the expert judgements of paired comparisons in the problem of calculation of the decision alternatives weights is proposed. This uncertainty is caused by the Saaty's evaluation scale and such expert features as pessimism/optimism. It is shown that the total consistency of expert judgements of paired comparisons can not be an indication of their truth. Therefore, the proposed method is based on the statement that expert judgements of paired comparisons only partially reflect the real ratios of the alternative weights and contain uncertainty regardless of their consistency level. Using the theory of trust (evidence) technique and results of a computer modeling, the general uncertainty index of paired comparisons expert judgementss is defined, when the uncertainty being caused by the Saaty's evaluation scale and personal expert features. This index is subsequently used to calculate the confidence intervals for the relative weights of decisions alternatives, which reflect alternatives importance more reliably in comparison with the point weights.


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