Inscrição na biblioteca: Guest
International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification

Publicou 6 edições por ano

ISSN Imprimir: 2152-5080

ISSN On-line: 2152-5099

The Impact Factor measures the average number of citations received in a particular year by papers published in the journal during the two preceding years. 2017 Journal Citation Reports (Clarivate Analytics, 2018) IF: 1.7 To calculate the five year Impact Factor, citations are counted in 2017 to the previous five years and divided by the source items published in the previous five years. 2017 Journal Citation Reports (Clarivate Analytics, 2018) 5-Year IF: 1.9 The Immediacy Index is the average number of times an article is cited in the year it is published. The journal Immediacy Index indicates how quickly articles in a journal are cited. Immediacy Index: 0.5 The Eigenfactor score, developed by Jevin West and Carl Bergstrom at the University of Washington, is a rating of the total importance of a scientific journal. Journals are rated according to the number of incoming citations, with citations from highly ranked journals weighted to make a larger contribution to the eigenfactor than those from poorly ranked journals. Eigenfactor: 0.0007 The Journal Citation Indicator (JCI) is a single measurement of the field-normalized citation impact of journals in the Web of Science Core Collection across disciplines. The key words here are that the metric is normalized and cross-disciplinary. JCI: 0.5 SJR: 0.584 SNIP: 0.676 CiteScore™:: 3 H-Index: 25

Indexed in

VISUALIZING UNCERTAINTY IN PREDICTED HURRICANE TRACKS

Volume 3, Edição 2, 2013, pp. 143-156
DOI: 10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2012003966
Get accessDownload

RESUMO

The error cone is a display produced by the National Hurricane Center in order to present its predictions of the path of a hurricane. While the error cone is one of the primary tools used by officials, and the general public, to make emergency response decisions, the uncertainty underlying this display can be easily misunderstood. This paper explores the design of an alternate display that provides a continually updated set of possible hurricane tracks, whose ensemble distribution closely matches the underlying statistics of a hurricane prediction. We explain the underlying algorithm and data structures, and demonstrate how our displays compare with the error cone. Finally, we review the design and results of a user study that we conducted as a preliminary test of the efficacy of our approach in communicating prediction uncertainty.

CITADO POR
  1. Appendini Christian M., Pedrozo-Acuña Adrián, Valle-Levinson Arnoldo, Storm surge at a western Gulf of Mexico site: variations on Tropical Storm Arlene, International Journal of River Basin Management, 12, 4, 2014. Crossref

  2. Daron Joseph D., Lorenz Susanne, Wolski Piotr, Blamey Ross C., Jack Christopher, Interpreting climate data visualisations to inform adaptation decisions, Climate Risk Management, 10, 2015. Crossref

  3. Lindell Michael K., Huang Shih-Kai, Wei Hung-Lung, Samuelson Charles D., Perceptions and expected immediate reactions to tornado warning polygons, Natural Hazards, 80, 1, 2016. Crossref

  4. Morrow Betty H., Lazo Jeffrey K., Rhome Jamie, Feyen Jesse, Improving Storm Surge Risk Communication: Stakeholder Perspectives, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, 1, 2015. Crossref

  5. Wu Hao-Che, Lindell Michael K., Prater Carla S., Process Tracing Analysis of Hurricane Information Displays, Risk Analysis, 35, 12, 2015. Crossref

  6. Liu L., Mirzargar M., Kirby R.M., Whitaker R., House D. H., Visualizing Time-Specific Hurricane Predictions, with Uncertainty, from Storm Path Ensembles, Computer Graphics Forum, 34, 3, 2015. Crossref

  7. Sherman-Morris Kathleen, Antonelli Karla B., Williams Carrick C., Measuring the Effectiveness of the Graphical Communication of Hurricane Storm Surge Threat, Weather, Climate, and Society, 7, 1, 2015. Crossref

  8. Mirzargar Mahsa, Whitaker Ross T., Kirby Robert M., Curve Boxplot: Generalization of Boxplot for Ensembles of Curves, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 20, 12, 2014. Crossref

  9. Whitaker Ross T., Mirzargar Mahsa, Kirby Robert M., Contour Boxplots: A Method for Characterizing Uncertainty in Feature Sets from Simulation Ensembles, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 19, 12, 2013. Crossref

  10. Cheong Lisa, Bleisch Susanne, Kealy Allison, Tolhurst Kevin, Wilkening Tom, Duckham Matt, Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty, International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 30, 7, 2016. Crossref

  11. Raj Mukund, Mirzargar Mahsa, Preston J. Samuel, Kirby Robert M., Whitaker Ross T., Evaluating Shape Alignment via Ensemble Visualization, IEEE Computer Graphics and Applications, 36, 3, 2016. Crossref

  12. Ruginski Ian T., Boone Alexander P., Padilla Lace M., Liu Le, Heydari Nahal, Kramer Heidi S., Hegarty Mary, Thompson William B., House Donald H., Creem-Regehr Sarah H., Non-expert interpretations of hurricane forecast uncertainty visualizations, Spatial Cognition & Computation, 16, 2, 2016. Crossref

  13. Ferstl Florian, Burger Kai, Westermann Rudiger, Streamline Variability Plots for Characterizing the Uncertainty in Vector Field Ensembles, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 22, 1, 2016. Crossref

  14. Liu Le, Boone Alexander P., Ruginski Ian T., Padilla Lace, Hegarty Mary, Creem-Regehr Sarah H., Thompson William B., Yuksel Cem, House Donald H., Uncertainty Visualization by Representative Sampling from Prediction Ensembles, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 23, 9, 2017. Crossref

  15. Li Cheng, Shen Han-Wei, Winding angle assisted particle tracing in distribution-based vector field, SIGGRAPH Asia 2017 Symposium on Visualization, 2017. Crossref

  16. Vad Viktor, Cedrim Douglas, Busch Wolfgang, Filzmoser Peter, Viola Ivan, Generalized box-plot for root growth ensembles, BMC Bioinformatics, 18, S2, 2017. Crossref

  17. Dübel Steve, Röhlig Martin, Tominski Christian, Schumann Heidrun, Visualizing 3D Terrain, Geo-Spatial Data, and Uncertainty, Informatics, 4, 1, 2017. Crossref

  18. Mulder Kelsey J., Lickiss Matthew, Harvey Natalie, Black Alison, Charlton-Perez Andrew, Dacre Helen, McCloy Rachel, Visualizing Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Scientist and Stakeholder Decisions Using Different Graphical Representations and Conflicting Forecasts, Weather, Climate, and Society, 9, 3, 2017. Crossref

  19. Padilla Lace M., Ruginski Ian T., Creem-Regehr Sarah H., Effects of ensemble and summary displays on interpretations of geospatial uncertainty data, Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications, 2, 1, 2017. Crossref

  20. Cao Yinghui, Boruff Bryan J., McNeill Ilona M., The smoke is rising but where is the fire? Exploring effective online map design for wildfire warnings, Natural Hazards, 88, 3, 2017. Crossref

  21. Huang Shih-Kai, Lindell Michael K., Prater Carla S., Who Leaves and Who Stays? A Review and Statistical Meta-Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Studies, Environment and Behavior, 48, 8, 2016. Crossref

  22. Pugh Ashley J., Wickens Christopher D., Herdener Nathan, Clegg Benjamin A., Smith C. A. P., Effect of Visualization on Spatial Trajectory Prediction under Uncertainty, Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, 61, 1, 2017. Crossref

  23. Lindell Michael K., Communicating Imminent Risk, in Handbook of Disaster Research, 2018. Crossref

  24. Sherman-Morris Kathleen, Del Valle-Martinez Idamis, Optimistic bias and the consistency of hurricane track forecasts, Natural Hazards, 88, 3, 2017. Crossref

  25. Jon Ihnji, Huang Shih-Kai, Lindell Michael K., Perceptions and reactions to tornado warning polygons: Would a gradient polygon be useful?, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, 2018. Crossref

  26. Wellmann Florian, Caumon Guillaume, , 59, 2018. Crossref

  27. Pugh Ashley J., Wickens Christopher D., Herdener Nathan, Clegg Benjamin A., Smith C. A. P., Effect of Visualization Training on Uncertain Spatial Trajectory Predictions, Human Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, 60, 3, 2018. Crossref

  28. Mirzargar Mahsa, Whitaker Ross T., Representative Consensus from Limited-Size Ensembles, Computer Graphics Forum, 37, 3, 2018. Crossref

  29. Rautenhaus Marc, Bottinger Michael, Siemen Stephan, Hoffman Robert, Kirby Robert M., Mirzargar Mahsa, Rober Niklas, Westermann Rudiger, Visualization in Meteorology—A Survey of Techniques and Tools for Data Analysis Tasks, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 24, 12, 2018. Crossref

  30. Rautenhaus M., Kern M., Schäfler A., Westermann R., Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts – Part 1: The visualization tool Met.3D (version 1.0), Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 7, 2015. Crossref

  31. Gerrits Tim, Rössl Christian, Theisel Holger, An Approximate Parallel Vectors Operator for Multiple Vector Fields, Computer Graphics Forum, 37, 3, 2018. Crossref

  32. Wickens Christopher D., Clegg Benjamin A., Witt Jessica K., Smith C. A. P., Herdener Nathan, Spahr Kimberly S., Model of variability estimation: factors influencing human prediction and estimation of variability in continuous information, Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science, 21, 2, 2020. Crossref

  33. Wang Junpeng, Hazarika Subhashis, Li Cheng, Shen Han-Wei, Visualization and Visual Analysis of Ensemble Data: A Survey, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 25, 9, 2019. Crossref

  34. Cheong Lisa, Kinkeldey Christoph, Burfurd Ingrid, Bleisch Susanne, Duckham Matt, Evaluating the impact of visualization of risk upon emergency route-planning, International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 34, 5, 2020. Crossref

  35. Murray‐Tuite Pamela, Ge Y. Gurt, Zobel Christopher, Nateghi Roshanak, Wang Haizhong, Critical Time, Space, and Decision‐Making Agent Considerations in Human‐Centered Interdisciplinary Hurricane‐Related Research, Risk Analysis, 41, 7, 2021. Crossref

  36. Pappenberger Florian, Cloke Hannah L., Baugh Calum A., Cartograms for Use in Forecasting Weather-Driven Natural Hazards, The Cartographic Journal, 56, 2, 2019. Crossref

  37. Miok Kristian, Nguyen-Doan Dong, Škrlj Blaž, Zaharie Daniela, Robnik-Šikonja Marko, Prediction Uncertainty Estimation for Hate Speech Classification, in Statistical Language and Speech Processing, 11816, 2019. Crossref

  38. Senkbeil Jason, Reed Jacob, Collins Jennifer, Brothers Kimberly, Saunders Michelle, Skeeter Walker, Cerrito Emily, Chakraborty Saurav, Polen Amy, Perceptions of Hurricane-Track Forecasts in the United States, Weather, Climate, and Society, 12, 1, 2020. Crossref

  39. Mulder Kelsey J., Lickiss Matthew, Black Alison, Charlton‐Perez Andrew J., McCloy Rachel, Young Joseph S., Designing environmental uncertainty information for experts and non‐experts: Does data presentation affect users’ decisions and interpretations?, Meteorological Applications, 27, 1, 2020. Crossref

  40. Orban Daniel, Banesh Divya, Tauxe Cameron, Biwer Christopher M., Biswas Ayan, Saavedra Ramon, Sweeney Christine, Sandberg Richard L., Bolme C. A., Ahrens James, Rogers David, Cinema:Bandit: a visualization application for beamline science demonstrated on XFEL shock physics experiments, Journal of Synchrotron Radiation, 27, 1, 2020. Crossref

  41. Millet Barbara, Carter Andrew P., Broad Kenneth, Cairo Alberto, Evans Scotney D., Majumdar Sharanya J., Hurricane Risk Communication: Visualization and Behavioral Science Concepts, Weather, Climate, and Society, 12, 2, 2020. Crossref

  42. MacPherson-Krutsky Carson C., Brand Brittany D., Lindell Michael K., Does updating natural hazard maps to reflect best practices increase viewer comprehension of risk?, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 46, 2020. Crossref

  43. Yao Zonghui, Dai Wenlin, G. Genton Marc, Trajectory functional boxplots, Stat, 9, 1, 2020. Crossref

  44. Korporaal Michelle, Ruginski Ian T., Fabrikant Sara Irina, Effects of Uncertainty Visualization on Map-Based Decision Making Under Time Pressure, Frontiers in Computer Science, 2, 2020. Crossref

  45. Lindell Michael K., Improving Hazard Map Comprehension for Protective Action Decision Making, Frontiers in Computer Science, 2, 2020. Crossref

  46. Huang Zhaosong, Lu Yafeng, Mack Elizabeth A., Chen Wei, Maciejewski Ross, Exploring the Sensitivity of Choropleths under Attribute Uncertainty, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 26, 8, 2020. Crossref

  47. Chen Jian, Zhang Guohao, Chiou Wesley, Laidlaw David H., Auchus Alexander P., Measuring the Effects of Scalar and Spherical Colormaps on Ensembles of DMRI Tubes, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 26, 9, 2020. Crossref

  48. Correll Michael, Moritz Dominik, Heer Jeffrey, Value-Suppressing Uncertainty Palettes, Proceedings of the 2018 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, 2018. Crossref

  49. Havas Clemens, Resch Bernd, Portability of semantic and spatial–temporal machine learning methods to analyse social media for near-real-time disaster monitoring, Natural Hazards, 108, 3, 2021. Crossref

  50. Bica Melissa, Weinberg Joy, Palen Leysia, Achieving Accuracy through Ambiguity: the Interactivity of Risk Communication in Severe Weather Events, Computer Supported Cooperative Work (CSCW), 29, 5, 2020. Crossref

  51. Stempel Peter J., Becker Austin, Is It Scientific? Viewer Perceptions of Storm Surge Visualizations, Cartographica: The International Journal for Geographic Information and Geovisualization, 56, 2, 2021. Crossref

  52. Padilla Lace, Dryhurst Sarah, Hosseinpour Helia, Kruczkiewicz Andrew, Multiple Hazard Uncertainty Visualization Challenges and Paths Forward, Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 2021. Crossref

  53. Ding Qinyu, Millet Barbara, Visualizing Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts, Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, 64, 1, 2020. Crossref

  54. Soden Robert, Chilton Lydia, Miles Scott, Bicksler Rebecca, Villanueva Kaira Ray, Bica Melissa, Insights and Opportunities for HCI Research into Hurricane Risk Communication, CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, 2022. Crossref

  55. Radford Laura, Senkbeil Jason C., Rockman Meganne, Suggestions for alternative tropical cyclone warning graphics in the USA, Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 22, 3, 2013. Crossref

  56. Broos Hannah C., Stamatis Caitlin A., Goodman Zachary, Llabre Maria M., Zvolensky Michael, Timpano Kiara R., Situational uncertainty interacts with anxiety sensitivity and distress intolerance to predict anticipated worry and preparation for a hurricane, Anxiety, Stress, & Coping, 2022. Crossref

  57. Liu Le, Padilla Lace, Creem-Regehr Sarah H., House Donald H., Visualizing Uncertain Tropical Cyclone Predictions using Representative Samples from Ensembles of Forecast Tracks, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 25, 1, 2019. Crossref

  58. Miran Seyed M., Ling Chen, James Joseph J., People's thresholds of decision-making against a tornado threat using dynamic probabilistic hazard information, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 42, 2020. Crossref

  59. Millet Barbara, Majumdar Sharanya J., Cairo Alberto, McNoldy Brian D., Evans Scotney D., Broad Kenneth, Exploring the Impact of Visualization Design on Non-Expert Interpretation of Hurricane Forecast Path, International Journal of Human–Computer Interaction, 2022. Crossref

  60. Harvey Natalie J., Western Luke M., Dacre Helen F., Capponi Antonio, Can Decision Theory Help End-Users Take the Appropriate Action in an Emergency?, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103, 10, 2022. Crossref

Portal Digital Begell Biblioteca digital da Begell eBooks Diários Referências e Anais Coleções de pesquisa Políticas de preços e assinaturas Begell House Contato Language English 中文 Русский Português German French Spain