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Портал Begell Электронная Бибилиотека e-Книги Журналы Справочники и Сборники статей Коллекции
Journal of Automation and Information Sciences
SJR: 0.238 SNIP: 0.464 CiteScore™: 0.27

ISSN Печать: 1064-2315
ISSN Онлайн: 2163-9337

Том 51, 2019 Том 50, 2018 Том 49, 2017 Том 48, 2016 Том 47, 2015 Том 46, 2014 Том 45, 2013 Том 44, 2012 Том 43, 2011 Том 42, 2010 Том 41, 2009 Том 40, 2008 Том 39, 2007 Том 38, 2006 Том 37, 2005 Том 36, 2004 Том 35, 2003 Том 34, 2002 Том 33, 2001 Том 32, 2000 Том 31, 1999 Том 30, 1998 Том 29, 1997 Том 28, 1996

Journal of Automation and Information Sciences

DOI: 10.1615/JAutomatInfScien.v50.i5.30
pages 22-33

Comparative Modeling of Two Special Scenarios of Extreme Dynamics in Forest Ecosystems: Psillides in Australia and Spruce Budworm Moth in Canada

Andrey Yu. Perevaryukha
Saint Petersburg Institute for Informatics and Automation of Russian Academy of Sciences, Saint Petersburg (Russia)

Краткое описание

Critical states of quantity remain outside the framework of classical methods of mathematical modeling in ecology. Outbreaks disrupt the idea of a species balance with the environment, the hypothesis of competition between individuals of one population and a decrease in reproduction efficiency with increasing density. In modern conditions, the extreme dynamics of populations take place more often due to the penetration of alien species into ecosystems and expansion of its areal. Explosive reproductions cause serious damage to the forest industry and can even irreversibly transform the environment. By the method of comparative analysis of situations, it is considered two scenarios of rapid, but spontaneously damped outbreaks of forest pests. For the dynamics of psyllides in the forests of Australia, a hybrid model with transition to chaotic fluctuations is proposed. Spruce budworm moth Choristoneura fumiferana in Canada is characterized by a series of damped peaks. The proposed model in the form of equations with delay describes the scenario of damped sharp oscillations, which has a more general character. A similar dynamics can be traced for invasive ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in the Caspian Sea and even in the dynamics of the epidemic of the "Spanish flu" a century ago, according to mortality in the UK. The scenarios considered in new computing models are transitional processes in the interaction of the species with its biotic environment.

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