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Портал Begell Электронная Бибилиотека e-Книги Журналы Справочники и Сборники статей Коллекции
Journal of Automation and Information Sciences
SJR: 0.232 SNIP: 0.464 CiteScore™: 0.27

ISSN Печать: 1064-2315
ISSN Онлайн: 2163-9337

Выпуски:
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Journal of Automation and Information Sciences

DOI: 10.1615/JAutomatInfScien.v41.i12.40
pages 58-69

Identification of Models of Geomagnetic Activity and Space Weather Prediction

Vitaliy A. Yatsenko
Institute of Space Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and National Space Agency of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
Oleg K. Cheremnykh
Institute of Space Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and State Space Agency of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine
Vsevolod M. Kuntsevich
Institute of Space Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and State Space Agency of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine
Oleg V. Semeniv
Institute of Space Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and National Space Agency of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine

Краткое описание

The problem of prediction of geomagnetic activity by the example of the method of Dst-index is considered. For its solving we suggested to use a nonlinear discrete dynamical system, which is obtained by decomposition of perturbations into series relative to correlation functions. Identification of structure and model parameters is defined by solving the corresponding problems of mathematical programming on bounded, but large enough set of stable models. On identification of model structure we took into account the assumption that model describes the state of magnetic-spherical-plasma medium, which is to great extent caused by influence of velocities of solar wind and south magnetic component of interplanetary magnetic field. The principal result of the work consists in numerical substantiation of existence of common stable model of minimal complexity, which provides the best prediction.


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